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Our Position on Obama's Election
The person you call President Obama ... ."

Saturday, December 17, 2005


Where Merrily takes her shoes off and does some counting. It adds up, too.
If you consider that there have been an average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theater of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2112 deaths, that gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000.

The rate in Washington D.C. (among others) is 80.6 per 100,000.

That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot and killed in our Nation's Capitol, which has some of the strictest gun control laws in the nation, than you are in Iraq.

Conclusion: We should immediately pull out of Washington D.C.
| E-MAIL Real King of France at 12/17/2005 04:03:00 PM PERMLINK Back Link (3) | HOME


Comments:

"I did not vote for Obama but he is remarkable. In less than three weeks in office he has collected more than $150,000 in back taxes."
Gayle Miller
Homicides are usually normalized at a rate of x deaths per 100,000 population per year. 60/100,000 is the rate per month.

I wish it were 60 per year, but I get an annual rate of 720 per 100,000.

2112/1.6 = 1320 per 100,000 over 22 months;

Annualizing, 1320*12/22 = 720 deaths per 100,000 per year.

Lt. Gen. Tailgunner dick
 
~

Little problem: I don't have the figures in front of me, but IIRC most of the fatalities in Iraq come form explosives: Car bombs, IED's, et cetera. Plus, of course, a sizeable percentage of noncombat fatalities (allergic reactions, falls, car accidents, et cetera).

Now if Merrily was advocating carbombing Washington DC... that would be a different story.

DaveP.
 
~

And even with that simple math which shows how much safer it is, it's STILL wrong because...

The 160,000 isn't a static population (as it is in DC). The soldier population is a rolling number. We'd have to know how many feet have touched the ground in total, not how many are there at any data point on the calendar.

Doing the math as simply as possible to illustrate...

If we assume that a tour of duty is about a year and we've been there for nearly 2 years, the sample population is actually twice that number (320,000). A total of 320,000 have been there,

That would mean the rate of death is 30 per 100,000 not 60.

Further, about 1200 soldiers die per year (in peacetime). A two year total would be 2400. Still 300 less than in the Iraq theatre. Which means they're better of in Iraq than they are in training.
 
~

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